After the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) stabilizes above 3500 points, how will the A-share market perform in late July?

The Paper collected the views of 10 securities firms. Most of them believe that a large number of policy signals were released before the important meeting. At the same time, as the bullish thinking in the market further consolidates, under the joint effect of policy support and warming sentiment, the market in the second half of the year may hit a new high.

Everbright Securities stated that since last September, the market trend has gradually shifted from policy-driven to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity. The rhythm of the future market trend may be similar to that of 2019. There are still some expected differences in the second half of the year, which may initiate the next phase of the upward market trend and is expected to surpass the high point of the second half of 2024.

\After the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized above 3500 points, the bullish market mentality was further consolidated. On the capital front, as the money-making effect increases, the positive feedback effect of incremental capital entering the stock market gradually emerges, and a new round of rising market trends is on the way,\ Huaxix Securities pointed out.

In terms of allocation, many securities firms have expressed their preference for the technology sector. For instance, Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that, in conjunction with the disclosure of mid-year performance forecasts, emerging technology is the main battleground for growth expectations, especially in industries with global competitiveness where the pace of improving industry prosperity continues to accelerate. Huanan Securities also stated that the current growth technology trend is expected to continue.

On the operational level, according to the analysis by Zheshang Securities, since the market chose to break upwards on June 24th, most broad-based indices, led by the Shanghai Composite Index, have formed a \bullish moving average divergence\ pattern during the upward trend. Therefore, before the medium-term challenge to 3674 points (the previous high before October 8, 2024), each round of retraction to important moving averages (such as MA20, MA60) can be considered a good opportunity to increase positions.

\The 'weight + micro-cap stocks' combination performed strongly in the early stage, but the result of this combination is that individual investors' perception is very disconnected from the market performance. Recently, there are signs of medium and large-cap stocks gradually warming up, but their sustainability still needs to be confirmed. Before the convergence of styles, do not expect a sector to continue to rise sharply, short-term trading is mainly about ambush, and the feeling of 'chasing highs' is still not good,\ said Galaxy Securities.

CITIC Securities:After the mid-year reporting seasonThe going overseas may be a new direction.

展望后市，A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的Yes不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够形成资金共识的板块，After the mid-year reporting season的出海可能Yes新的方向。

From the mid-year report forecasts, going global remains one of the strong clues for exceeding performance expectations; based on the experience of the past few years, going global has a significant effect on increasing the ROE and profit margins of companies, and it is also a form of actively \anti-internal competition\ and increasing profit margins; looking at the future trend, once the logic of global revenue exposure is understood, it will bring stability in stock allocation and valuation premium, which is the inevitable path for emerging markets to enter mature markets.

This year, going overseas has been one of the best clues for performance, but due to overseas disturbances, the market has fluctuated violently and has always been in a scattered bottom-up driven state. As trade conflict expectations gradually stabilize after August and the mid-year report season ends, going overseas may once again form a sectoral trend.

In terms of configuration, from the present to the end of the mid-year reporting season, it is still recommended to focus on rotation among Hang Seng Technology, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, innovative drugs, military industry, and gaming, with a current bias towards Hang Seng Technology.

Cathay Pacific and HaitongSecurities: Emerging Technology and Improvements in Some Cyclical Industries Become Clear

Looking ahead to the mid-year report, there are still bottlenecks in overall growth, but the performance improvement of emerging technology and some cyclical sectors is becoming increasingly clear. From a total volume perspective, the economy in the second quarter is still in a pattern of \increasing quantity and weak price\, with improvements in exports and consumption, insufficient investment momentum, and the \breadth\ of economic prosperity has not expanded significantly.

Combining the mid-year performance forecast disclosure as of July 16, 1531 companies have currently disclosed their results, with a positive forecast rate of 43.7%, which is lower than the positive forecast rate for the mid-year reports over the past three years. Estimating from the top down, the cumulative profit growth rate for the first half of the year for the entire A-share market/entire A-share market excluding finance is 1.0%/1.2%. From a structural perspective, the acceleration of differentiation between the old and new economic growth is evident. The improvement in the mid-to-downstream sectors is better than that of the upstream sectors, especially high-tech industries such as equipment manufacturing, which outperform consumer goods and upstream raw material manufacturing.

Combining the mid-year performance forecast disclosure, the technology hardware, resource products, and non-bank sectors have relatively fast performance growth, among which the electronics/metal/non-bank/agriculture/steel and other industries have high overall performance forecasts and a high rate of positive expectations. Looking at the secondary industries, small metals and precious metals/agrochemicals/ships/games/rail transit/wind power/semiconductors/aquaculture/condiments/securities and other tracks have a high forecast growth rate and a high rate of positive expectations. On the other hand, the growth of the real estate black chain and automotive/furniture and other domestic durable goods is relatively weak.

In terms of configuration, investors are advised to focus on three clues: First, the improvement in traditional economic industries is relatively slow, with a weakening turnover of accounts receivable for industrial enterprises; Second, emerging technology is the main position for growth surprises, especially in industries with global competitiveness where the pace of improvement in business conditions continues to accelerate; Third, the improvement in performance for some cyclical and financial sectors is becoming increasingly clear.

Galaxy Securities:short-termNo need topessimistic

Looking ahead to the market, from a macro perspective, the management has released a large number of policy signals before the important meeting, but due to the broad coverage, many messages may not have a significant reflection in stock prices, but at least it can let funds understand that there is a policy bottom. In terms of the market, last week's market sentiment was still strong, even though funds were still engaged in a \relay elimination competition\ with rapid sector rotation, but the index was stable and volatility decreased, and the sentiment of funds continued to warm up.

综上，在政策有底+情绪回暖的共同作用下，short-termNo need topessimistic。此外，市场将进入政策密集落地期与中报业绩验证期叠加的窗口，业绩超预期和政策超预期这两种驱动可能此起彼伏，所以结构性行情大概率仍将主导市场，把握产业趋势与资金动向Yes获取超额收益的关键。

操作层面，方向选择上，建议中期聚焦内循环与科技自主两个偏宏大的叙事，比如当下的反内卷明显不Yesshort-term叙事，增量资金缓慢进场会给低位且有中期逻辑的板块带来不断的脉冲行情，与之类似的还有创新药等明确受到政策鼓励的领域，值得持续关注。

In short-term operations, the combination of \weight + micro-cap stocks\ performed very strongly in the early stage, but the result of this combination is that individual investors' perception is very disjointed from the market performance. Recently, there are signs of medium and large-cap stocks gradually warming up, with many industry-leading companies experiencing stock price movements, but the sustainability still needs to be confirmed. Before the convergence of styles, do not expect a sector to continue to rise sharply. Short-term trading is mainly about ambushing, and \chasing highs\ still feels uncomfortable.

Shenwan HongyuanBull market's necessary conditions will gradually accumulate.

Looking ahead, time has become a friend of the bull market. As time goes on, the necessary conditions for a bull market will gradually accumulate. By the fourth quarter of 2025, conditions for the market to break upward will be more favorable. First, the fundamental expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 will shift towards 2026. With the accumulation of anti-internal-competition policies and the gradual clarification of key industry clues, the market may accelerate to reflect the optimistic expectations of improved supply and demand patterns and rising profitability in 2026.

Secondly, the total performance growth rate in 2026 may experience a reversal from difficulty, and the high growth due to the low base in the fourth quarter of 2025. Relative to the third quarter of 2025, the fourth quarter of 2025 is an apparent reversal from difficulty in A-share performance, which is conducive to the market fermenting ahead of schedule.

Once again, 2025 is a peak year for the maturity and re-pricing of residential deposits, with the end of the year and the beginning of the year being a key window. The cliff-like decline in re-pricing interest rates represents an actual drop in risk-free interest rates for A-shares. At the same time, the re-allocation of residential assets is approaching a critical window, with equity-like debt assets (multi-asset investments, structured products, fixed income+, dividend insurance, quantitative products) expected to see a natural increase. This part of the increase has a limited dependence on the profit-making effect of the stock market.

配置方面，反内卷投资short-term更偏向于低估值周期品，中期挖掘景气改善与供给出清/反内卷政策超预期共振的中游制造才Yes重点。2025年二季度景气验证，维持对A股算力产业链和港股互联网龙头的推荐。银行调整已兑现，继续提示市场关注度降低，构成再配置机会。

Xingye Securities: Emphasize the structural main line

Recently, a very clear feeling in the market is that the main line is gradually becoming clear and further focused, with \AI computing power + resource products\ increasingly becoming a market consensus. On the one hand, the computing power industry chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has significantly outperformed, becoming the main line that stands out in the AI sector, with military, innovative drugs, robots, and other technology growth also showing some performance; on the other hand, resource products such as nonferrous metals, chemical industry, building materials, and steel continue to gather market consensus, becoming another main line with money-making effects outside of technology growth.

Behind the focus of the market's main line, on the one hand, is the \calendar effect\ of \main line focus, strong market pattern\ emphasized in July, and on the other hand, the clues of the mid-year report's prosperity are clearer this year, making it easier for the performance main line to gather market consensus. The increase in micro-level prosperity clues has driven the revitalization of market confidence and the increase in capital participation, which is also an important reason why the market continues to set new highs recently, even though macro expectations have not been significantly revised.

Looking ahead, before there are significant changes in the macro environment, focusing on structural main lines remains the main approach for subsequent responses. On the one hand, the economic data for June shows that the macro economy has not yet seen a new narrative, and the market may still look for structural highlights from a micro perspective; on the other hand, after the disclosure of mid-year performance forecasts, the industry rotation strength is still converging and focusing on the main line, and the main line that has formed market consensus may still have a certain continuity.

Everbright Securities: The market may hit new highs in the second half of the year.

Looking ahead to the future market, it may hit new highs in the second half of the year. The market trend since September last year has gradually shifted from policy-driven to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity. The rhythm of the future market trend may be comparable to that of 2019. There are still some expected differences in the second half of the market, which may initiate the next phase of the upward trend and is expected to break through the high point of the second half of 2024.

From a fundamental perspective, recent economic data have shown overall good performance. In the second quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate year-on-year reached 5.2%, and the cumulative growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%. In the second half of the year, the GDP growth rate only needs to reach 4.7% to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5%. In the second quarter of 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of retail sales and exports both increased, indicating a stable demand side and a slowdown in investment growth, with an improvement in the supply and demand relationship of the economy.

From a policy perspective, improving profitability and capital market entry are being addressed simultaneously. On the molecular end, policies against \involution\ across various industries continue to advance, alleviating corporate profitability pressures; on the denominator end, the Ministry of Finance issued the \Notice on Guiding Insurance Funds for Long-term Stable Investment and Further Strengthening the Long-term Assessment of State-owned Commercial Insurance Companies,\ further guiding long-term capital into the market. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, there is still room for internal policies in terms of the pace and scope of their impact; should external uncertainties rise, policies may still act swiftly.

Overseas, global liquidity is expected to be loose in the second half of the year. From the current market expectations, September may become a key point for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year. If the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, global liquidity will further loosen, helping to revalue Chinese assets.

At the same time, the improvement in domestic demand may continue to drive the repair of profits. Driven by the improvement in the economic fundamentals, the profit growth rate of listed companies in the first quarter rebounded significantly, with the repair speed slightly exceeding expectations, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate higher than the average of the same period since 2019. Considering the current economy faces dual pressures from external factors and transformation, consumer subsidy-related policies may continue, and the sustainability of domestic demand improvement is expected to exceed expectations.

配置方向上，short-term可关注中报业绩有望占优的板块，中长期则关注三条主线It seems like you haven't provided any text for me to translate. Please send the text you would like to have translated into English, and I'll be happy to assist you.内需消费、科技自立与红利个股。内需消费方向，关注补贴相关、线下服务消费等；科技板块，关注AI、机器人、半导体产业链、国防军工、低空经济等；红利板块，关注部分高质量标的。

Zheshang SecuritiesIt seems like you haven't provided any text for me to translate. Please send the text you would like to have translated into English, and I'll be happy to assist you.Return visitYesGood opportunity for additional configuration.

展望后市，在中线冲击3674点（2024年10月8日前高）之前，每一轮Return visit重要均线（例如MA20、MA60），都可以认为Yes增配的好机会。随着6月24日以来市场选择向上突破，以上证为首的多数宽基指数都在上涨过程中形成了“多头均线发散”的走势。

In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors adopt a \1+1+X\ strategy, using banks as the cornerstone, holding low-position securities firms, and balancing the technology growth sectors such as military, computer, media, electronics, and electric vehicles.

东方财富证券It seems like you haven't provided any text for me to translate. Please send the text you would like to have translated into English, and I'll be happy to assist you.The barbell strategy is facing changes.

展望后市，市场定价也在发生微妙变化，“大盘价值/红利+小盘成长/微盘股”的杠铃策略开始出现向中间段回摆迁移的迹象。值得关注的几个信号有两方面It seems like you haven't provided any text for me to translate. Please send the text you would like to have translated into English, and I'll be happy to assist you.一Yes上周大盘成长风格跑赢小盘成长约1.3个百分点，Yes去年10月以来大/小盘成长指数周涨幅均大于0的周度中，跑赢幅度最大的一周。

二Yes红利风格今年以来因股息率性价比的因素向银行板块极致缩圈，申万银行板块个股的平均股息率从年初约4.5%的水平降至目前3.8%左右，近期资金对于其股息率性价比或已出现了一定分歧。

Objectively speaking, style switching is not something that can be achieved overnight, and the current win rate and elasticity are relatively limited; but in the medium term, if \anti-internal competition\ is successfully combined with policies to expand domestic demand to stabilize the ROE of traditional economic sectors, and new drivers of demand such as going global/technological innovation gradually grow, coupled with a further extension of the assessment cycle for institutional funds, then the underlying logic for the barbell strategy that has been dominant in the past three years indeed faces a change.

配置方面，结构上，反内卷Yesshort-term重要政策线索，后续若政策顺利推进，首先确定的Yes，将对供需过剩行业的ROE提供托底支撑，中期空间则取决于ROE向上修复弹性，需综合评判各板块自身的供需缺口变化+政策去产能/扩需求的力度。

In terms of win rate, it is recommended that investors continue to focus on technology/pharmaceutical sectors that have not yet seen a significant overheating in valuations, but where profit expectations are still improving. Overall, the current industry focus includes non-ferrous metals, steel, Hong Kong Internet, innovative drugs/CXO, optical modules/PCB, military industry, photovoltaics, etc., with medium-term attention on semiconductors/national computing power, etc.

华安证券It seems like you haven't provided any text for me to translate. Please send the text you would like to have translated into English, and I'll be happy to assist you.科技行情仍未结束

展望后市，政策有望进一步发力托底，特别Yes反内卷政策高层级落地，托底房地产和刺激消费内需政策有望出台，市场情绪进一步提振，预计市场仍将延续震荡上行。

In terms of configuration, banks are expected to enter a volatile market, with the catalyst for anti-internal competition upgrading, and the technology market is expected to continue its strong performance. In addition, there is still room for phased valuation repair in real estate, and fields with momentum support, such as rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, construction machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemical products, can also be considered.

当成长科技行情迎来阶段性见顶时，通常会出现5种预警现象，一Yes估值百分位，二Yes上涨时的最大涨幅和时间，三Yes行情顶部时高位股跳水次数（大于2次），四Yes行情出现主线向其他方向扩散的现象，五Yes交易拥挤过热。这5种预警因素在过去4次AI催化的行情阶段性顶部时均有出现。

From the current perspective, among these 5 factors, valuation percentile and the time space for upward movement have issued warnings, but the conditions for warnings such as the number of dives, main line diffusion, and trading overheating are not fully met. Therefore, as of now, it is expected that the growth technology market has not yet ended.

华西证券It seems like you haven't provided any text for me to translate. Please send the text you would like to have translated into English, and I'll be happy to assist you.新一轮上涨行情在路上

Looking ahead to the future market, a new round of upward trend is on the way. After the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized above 3500 points last week, the bullish thinking in the market was further consolidated. On the capital front, as the money-making effect improves, the positive feedback effect of incremental funds entering the stock market gradually emerges, and it is observed that private funds and margin funds continue to enter the market in this round of trend.

A股新一轮行情已经拉开序幕，建议关注高景气成长领域、涨价资源品领域，此外稳定红利类资产仍将Yes中长期资金配置的重要方向。

配置上，建议投资者关注三条主线It seems like you haven't provided any text for me to translate. Please send the text you would like to have translated into English, and I'll be happy to assist you.一Yes高景气的新技术、新成长方向，如AI算力、军工、海洋经济、固态电池等；二Yes受益于涨价相关资源品方向，如小金属、工业金属；三Yes低利率环境下，稳定红利类资产仍将Yes中长期资金配置的重要方向。