After the May Day holiday, the A-share market warmed up again in the first week. How will the market perform next?

The Paper collected opinions from 10 securities firms, and most of them believe that with the recent policy combination from \one bank, one bureau, and one meeting,\ coupled with China's advantages in the entire industrial chain of manufacturing, the reform of the capital market system will become a key force for incremental market entry, and the Chinese stock market is expected to rise further, seizing the window period for going long.

Guotai Haitong Securities stated that it will maintain an optimistic view on A-shares in the next phase. The risk premium of the Chinese stock market is expected to shift downwards systematically, and the decline in the risk-free interest rate along with the reform of the capital market system will become the key force for incremental market entry, seizing the window of opportunity to go long.

\Historical experience shows that during the export decline phase, A-shares can also make a market, with the core being the strength of domestic counter-cyclical policy and the global competitiveness of the technology industry trend. China has demonstrated the advantages of the full industrial chain in manufacturing, and the revaluation of Chinese assets is timely. Against this backdrop, A-shares are expected to gradually raise the central axis in fluctuations,\ Huaxix Securities said.

On the configuration level, several securities firms have reminded investors to pay attention to opportunities in the technology sector. Xingye Securities pointed out that under the influence of performance disclosure and overseas disturbances, the technology style has already adjusted to a low level. Entering May-June, as the market returns to the expected aesthetic model and is catalyzed by a new round of industrial events, the technology sector, which has both the advantage of prosperity and the catalyst of industrial trends, is expected to regain the upper hand in the medium and long term and gradually become the main focus of capital.

In terms of operations, Galaxy Securities reminds investors that although trading volume began to pick up after the May Day holiday, the characteristic of rapid market rotation still exists, making short-term trading difficult. Without the trading volume returning to above 1.5 trillion yuan, avoid \lingering\ in short-term trades.

CITIC Securities:proactivemutual funds will become moreFocus on core asset pricing

On May 7, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) officially issued the \Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Publicly Offered Funds.\ The plan makes deployments in four aspects: fund operation models, fund assessment models, the role of funds, and the construction of investment institutions, with the core focus on enhancing investors' sense of gain. Compared to the draft for comments, the formal plan has made several optimization adjustments in the implementation, showing a stronger sense of pragmatism and flexibility.

其中，基准偏离和盈利客户比率可能是公募考核新规影响最大的两个规则。从过往proactive基金业绩基准分布来看，采用沪深300和中证800的基金仅占总规模的62%，超过18%的产品是赛道型产品。

2007年至今，2012年至2014年和2022年至2024年出现过三年维度proactive公募大面积跑输沪深300指数10个百分点的情况。过去3年公募普遍跑输基准，低配银行是部分原因，频繁交易和板块rotation也产生负向贡献。

展望后市，向基准靠拢和保守化配置是大势所趋，但过程是动态的，绝非简单做多低配行业。未来proactive公募会更加Focus on core asset pricing而不是边际信息流定价，策略范式可能出现整体性调整。未来资管行业当中相对收益和绝对收益产品的策略、选股范围和定价模式会呈现明显分化。

Guotai HaitongSecurities:Seize the opportunity to do multi-window periods.

Looking forward to the future, China's stock market is expected to rise further. The adjustment and strong repair of the stock market in March-April is another important turning point after 924. It indicates that investors' doubts about the decision-makers' determination to reverse the situation have been reduced, serving both as a risk release and a touchstone.

展望下一阶段，维持对中国股市的乐观看法，中国股市风险溢价有望系统性下移，而无风险利率下降与资本市场制度改革将成为增量入市的关键力量，Seize the opportunity to do multi-window periods.。

Firstly, after experiencing the shock, investors have a full understanding of the economic situation, including the liquidation of transaction structures, which is an important prerequisite for the stock market to improve.

Secondly, despite the remaining uncertainties, the intense friction of the first phase of overseas disturbances has come to an end, creating a favorable window for taking long positions.

Once again, the key to stock market expectations lies \within rather than outside\. Both the Politburo meeting and the State Council's regular meeting have sent positive signals of addressing external uncertainties with internal certainty, with existing policies being accelerated and additional policies on the verge of deployment. Compared to the past, the expectations and outlook for policies are more continuous and stable.

In terms of configuration, emerging technology is the main thread, and the financial cycle is the dark horse. Investors are advised to focus on three main lines: First, finance and high dividend securities/insurance/banks, as well as central enterprises with high dividends and stable operation advantages, such as operators/expressways/public utilities. Second, emerging technology growth in Hong Kong stocks, including the internet/media/gaming/information technology/semiconductors/computing power/pharmaceuticals; Third, the return of cyclical sectors such as real estate/non-ferrous metals/chemicals/build materials/snacks/cosmetics.

银河Securities:short-term tradingDo not\Love War\

展望后市，虽然节后交易量开始回升，但市场rotation快、持续性差的特点依然存在，short-term trading难度大，在成交量未回到1.5万亿元以上的情况下，short-term tradingDo not\Love War\。

From a macro perspective, the market is currently shifting its focus to actual growth and industry impact. Domestically, the pace of implementation of existing policies is very fast, reflecting a significant increase in the management's attention to stimulating domestic demand. However, not all export directions are not viable, nor are all domestic demand directions promising. The medium-term trend may not have changed, but the difficulty of matching valuations with performance expectations in the short term is relatively high. This chaotic situation may continue for some time.

操作层面，中期方向没有变化，只是要静待相关事件和国内刺激更明确，而short-term trading建议以红利和科技成长为主，同时要密切关注成交量情况，成交量不能维持较高的水平，盘面大概率以rotation为主，投资者根据个人交易能力量力而行。

Specifically, the military industry and technology remain important directions for short-term attention. Recent overseas geopolitical conflicts, domestic operating systems, and the potential upcoming robot combat competitions are all catalysts for the growth direction of technology. However, the trading volume is not sufficient to support the continuous strength of multiple directions, so most of them are event-driven pulse markets, and the feeling of chasing highs is not friendly. In addition, it can be seen on the market that there are continuous purchases of heavyweight stocks and directions preferred by Northbound capital, and although the sustainability needs to be observed, dividend stocks may still be one of the important directions worth paying attention to.

Shenwan Hongyuan源Securities:Centrally biased volatile market

展望后市，二季度或是Centrally biased volatile market。一方面，外需回落压力尚未显现，但后续仍有担忧。市场消化基本面预期“时间不足”，短期市场难以全面突破。另一方面，金融政策宽松直接与稳定基本市场预期关联，在A股关键节点，维持市场活跃度。政策及时宽松、平准基金引导预期，支撑市场下限和抬高震荡中枢。

At the current stage, financial easing is concentrated and strongly linked to the stability of the capital market. This is conducive to maintaining short-term risk preference and helps to keep the overall activity of the A-share market during key windows. Although this may not be sufficient to achieve a comprehensive improvement in the mid-term fundamentals and an upward breakthrough of A-shares, the effect of stabilizing and lifting the fluctuation range should not be overlooked.

In terms of configuration, structurally, both in the short and long term, the direction is technology. The first-quarter report shows that the prosperity is concentrated in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology, with technology having a relatively better cost-performance ratio in the short term. In the long term, the resumption of structural bull market in A-shares requires the catalysis of heavyweight technology industries to strengthen market consensus. In the short term, robots have a superior microstructure, and the theme elasticity is better than domestic AI, continuing to be optimistic about Hong Kong stocks over A-shares. \Making up for the underweight direction\ is just a short-term thematic opportunity.

华泰Securities:结构性行情为主

Post-holiday, A-shares continued to rise, but the second half of last week turned to consolidation after filling the gap on April 7th, with accelerated industry rotation. On the funding side, the activity level of financing has rebounded from the bottom, and the inflow of contrarian funds such as ETFs has slowed down, with a style leaning towards small and medium-sized growth stocks. Looking ahead, a package of policies to stabilize the market and expectations supports risk preference, April inflation and export data show resilience, short-term win rates are still acceptable but the odds have decreased, and the market may be dominated by structural trends.

In terms of inflation, the April CPI and PPI were in line with expectations on a year-over-year basis, and the core CPI, which is more closely related to domestic demand after excluding food and energy prices, remained stable; looking ahead, credit leading indicators such as the M1-M2 year-on-year spread suggest that inflation still faces downward pressure.

In terms of configuration, under the interweaving of external multiple disturbances, the short-term maintains a barbell configuration of dividends + technology + domestic demand, and in the medium term, it grasps the internal certainty clues: First, the new regulations for public funds may guide the allocation of funds to converge towards the benchmark, and large-cap stocks and underweighted sectors such as finance and public utilities by public funds are expected to benefit; Second, in the first quarter report, sectors with improved supply and demand in both directions, such as military electronics, minor metals, wind power equipment, and dairy products, can be laid out when the market is low.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the \Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds,\ which is expected to promote the reshaping of the A-share market ecosystem. Among them, promoting medium and long-term capital into the market and guiding capital allocation to converge towards benchmarks, large-cap stocks and public funds underweight industries such as finance, public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals are expected to benefit, and the effectiveness of value, low volatility, and dividend factors may be enhanced.

兴业Securities:The technology sector is expected to be focused on by funds again.

Recently, as the market has been recovering from fluctuations, it has been accompanied by rapid rotation across various styles and industries. The market has entered a phase where the main trend is unclear, and the industry rotation intensity index has also risen to a historical high.

Behind the rapid rotation, on the one hand, after the impact brought by overseas disturbances at the beginning of April, as investor confidence is repaired under policy care, the market also starts to actively seek \wrongly killed\ assets in various sectors, with various assets being repaired in turn, driving the convergence of gains and losses in different industries and styles. On the other hand, the economy is in the stage of bottom repair, and the market visibility is still relatively low, so the central level of industry rotation intensity this year is indeed significantly higher than in previous years.

Looking ahead, in the current market where there is a lack of consensus and the main trend is not yet clear, the \calendar effect\ may be a good perspective to observe. The market patterns revealed by the \calendar effect\ are not just mere coincidences, but rather the market's regular characteristics under the joint influence of macroeconomic environments, industry peak and off-peak seasons, specific industry events, and investor risk preferences at certain stages. These patterns imply profound logic and essence.

Firstly, under the overlay of performance disclosure and overseas disturbances, the technology style has already adjusted to a low level in the early period. Entering May-June, as the market returns to the expected aesthetic model and is catalyzed by a new round of industrial events, the technology sector, which has the advantage of prosperity and industrial trend catalysis, is expected to regain the upper hand in the medium and long term, gradually becoming the main focus of capital.

Secondly, service consumption and new consumption, as the directions with strong internal momentum repair in this round, key focus of expansionary domestic demand policies, and in line with the trend of consumption upgrading, are the structural highlights in subsequent domestic demand. They are expected to demonstrate their resilience during the seasonal rise in consumer demand in the middle of the year, becoming an important support force for the relay of domestic demand.

Finally, considering that May-June is inherently an economic off-season, and the negative impact of overseas disturbances on the domestic economy has begun to materialize in the data disclosed in the second quarter, it may cause potential disturbances to risk preferences later on. Bond-like dividends can be used as a base position to cope with potential uncertainties.

Zheshang Securities: predominantly fluctuating

Looking ahead, the market is expected to opt for \active consolidation,\ using fluctuations to digest the profits from the continuous rebound over the past month. It is only when there is more incremental information from external news that the next trend can be determined.

As the majority of broad-based indices in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have filled the gap of April 7th, the negative impact of previous overseas disturbances has been eliminated by the \joint force\ of policy, capital, and the inherent stability of the capital market. While the main stock indices \return\ to the levels before the Qingming Festival, the negative factors that led to the market's earlier \downward turn\ have not been completely eliminated, which means that the recent performance of the stock indices has \led\ the changes in fundamentals.

In terms of industry sectors, among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, there were 30 gains and 0 declines, showing the characteristics of \risk preference returning with a full-line rebound, and dividend style steadily rising.\

In terms of configuration, based on the judgment of \rebound completion and beginning of consolidation, with a range-bound market waiting for news,\ it is recommended that investors continue to hold their current positions but not easily chase rises. At the same time, they should appropriately adjust their current portfolio structure, switching from the technology and growth sectors that have rebounded significantly in the past period to the large finance, central enterprise, and dividend sectors that have relatively limited rebound in the early stage.

光大Securities:The market style may shift between defense andgrowth phaserotation

On May 7th, the \Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Publicly Offered Funds\ was issued, and it is expected that the relevant plan will have a profound impact on the A-share market and the allocation of the fund industry. Looking at the overall impact, the \Action Plan\ may promote more medium and long-term capital inflows into the A-share market, enhancing the market's resilience.

From the current perspective, the proportion of equity-type public funds is still relatively low. Under the guidance of policy, the proportion of equity funds is expected to continue to increase, bringing a large amount of incremental funds to the A-share market.

From historical experience, the issuance of equity funds brings a large amount of incremental capital that can drive market growth. From January 3, 2019, to February 9, 2021, newly established equity-oriented fund shares amounted to approximately 3.14 trillion, during which the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 46.2%. Therefore, if the issuance volume of equity funds significantly increases in the future, it may become one of the important drivers of market growth.

In terms of configuration, structurally, broad-based indices related to technology may significantly benefit and deserve attention, including the STAR 50 Index and indices related to semiconductor chips. In addition, industries with strong profitability and stable performance may be favored by public funds, including home appliances, banking, transportation, food and beverages, non-bank finance, and other industries. Among them, some industries that are underweighted by funds may be worth focusing on, including banking, transportation, and non-bank finance industries.

接下来，市场在未来或将处于“弱现实、弱情绪”或“弱现实、强情绪”情景，对应于防御与成长风格的rotation，防御风格主要关注稳定类或高股息行业，成长风格下关注主题成长及独立景气行业。

华安Securities:高位震荡

Looking ahead, the market may continue to maintain a high-level fluctuation pattern. The export data for April exceeded expectations, but the pressure from overseas disturbances is still present, coupled with the lack of improvement in price data, both domestic and external demand still have weak expectations. Policies are gradually being implemented, with the central bank's monetary policy taking the lead, and subsequent fiscal, industrial, employment, social security, and other policies are expected to be implemented in a coordinated manner, such as supporting enterprises to shift from exports to domestic sales, continuing to expand domestic demand, especially service consumption in areas like elderly care and child-rearing, and the relaxation of real estate regulation is expected to become a key direction.

In terms of configuration, it is still necessary and timely for banks to maintain a balanced configuration at both ends of growth. On the one hand, there is an increased demand for short-term stable-type configurations with medium and long-term strategic investment value in banks and insurance companies. On the other hand, after a deep correction, growth technology has strong layout value, and with policy and event catalysts, attention can be paid to the pan-TMT sectors such as electronics, computers, media, and communications.

华西Securities:The market center of gravity gradually rises.

Looking ahead, the revaluation of \Chinese assets\ is timely, and is entering a stage where the entire industry chain has advantages. Against this backdrop, A-shares are expected to gradually lift the central axis amidst fluctuations.

On the one hand, China has demonstrated the advantage of its full industrial chain in manufacturing in the past anti-globalization environment. Although the market is concerned about the decline in external demand, historical experience shows that A-shares can also perform well during the export decline phase, with the core being the strength of domestic counter-cyclical policy and the global competitiveness of the technology industry trend.

On the other hand, the capital market has become an important tool for stabilizing expectations. Recently, the \one bank, one bureau, and one commission\ have rolled out a new set of policy combinations. If subsequent trade shocks become more explicit, various incremental policies in terms of currency, finance, industry, and employment will be introduced in a timely manner, and measures to stabilize the stock market will also be implemented.

In addition, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the \Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Publicly Offered Funds,\ proposing 25 measures to urge the industry to shift from \focusing on scale\ to \focusing on returns.\ The new regulations will have a medium to long-term impact on the A-share market ecosystem. First, it will accelerate the trend of indexization in publicly offered product development; second, the new rules highlight the constraining effect of the performance comparison benchmark of fund products, which may lead to an increased allocation of actively managed equity funds with medium to low risk preferences in weight industries such as the CSI 300 or an increased allocation of dividend assets.

In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the AI+ industry mainline, innovative drugs, and the \new consumption\ field in the large consumer goods sector. In terms of themes, it is recommended to focus on military industry, etc.