In the history of the world economy, trade frictions between countries are not uncommon, but the recent United States' domineering exploitation and malicious slandering of other nations have exceeded the imagination of the vast majority. When they run out of arguments, they often resort to the \Chinese economic collapse theory,\ and this time they speak without regard to basic logic, as if this would truly mean a \win.\ In the eyes of the world, this has almost become a form of performance art. Of course, no matter how absurd their rhetoric may be, we must remain rational and respond calmly. The state of China's economy is not determined by anyone's glib talk; the scientific approach is to conduct a serious analysis, comparison, and assessment, to speak with facts, and to leave the conclusions for the world to make a fair evaluation.

Whether the fundamentals are stable or not depends on professional analysis.

The \basics\ of economic operation, what exactly are they measured by? On a macro level, it is mainly analyzed through four major goals, namely economic growth, increasing employment, price stability, and balance of international payments. If the specific indicators related to these four goals are unstable, it can be considered that there is a problem with the basic aspects of the macroeconomy. So, how is the current state of China's economy?

In terms of growth, the GDP increased by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, and various consumption data during the \May Day\ holiday were impressive; in terms of employment, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate across the country was 5.3% in the first quarter, and the overall situation was stable; in terms of prices, the consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year-on-year from January to April, and in April it turned from a decline to an increase on a month-on-month basis, with the core CPI increase remaining stable; in terms of international balance of payments, the growth of goods trade imports and exports was 2.4% year-on-year from January to April, and the foreign exchange reserve scale increased by 1.27% month-on-month at the end of April, with the foreign exchange market operating overall smoothly.

Looking globally, few major economies can achieve the four major goals while maintaining a stable performance like China. The U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and the pace of corporate hiring in April slowed to the lowest level in nine months. Inflation risks are always looming, and the trade deficit has not decreased but increased. Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also stated that tariffs are the main factor driving inflation expectations. If tariffs continue to increase significantly, there will be higher inflation and lower employment. When the macroeconomy faces such a situation, instead of worrying and solving it, they are busy playing \winning studies\ against other countries, which is also a bit puzzling.

Understand the policy context and truly enhance confidence.

Stabilizing the basic plate of economic operation is a dynamic process. China has not underestimated the challenges that external environmental changes pose to the domestic economy, and instead responds more from a bottom-line thinking perspective, preferring to overestimate the difficulties.

The recent policies introduced by various departments can be described as a new set of incremental combinations launched according to the central deployment. The basic thread is \2+2+1\, which means to maintain two lines of defense by supporting employment and stabilizing foreign trade, to expand the economic development cake by promoting consumption and actively expanding effective investment, and to resolve potential risks in financial, real estate, and other fields by creating a favorable environment.

This combination of punches has a clear problem orientation, aiming directly and indirectly at the impacts brought by the \tariff war\. Because we recognize that confidence does not fall from the sky; only by facing difficulties and solving problems can we truly strengthen confidence.

How is the Chinese economy doing? Onlookers can see clearly. Many well-known international investment institutions have predicted that China's economy will maintain steady growth this year. Chinese asset prices have shown strong resilience, and foreign institutional investors are quietly laying out in China's capital market. It should also be noted that China is advancing the preparation of the \15th Five-Year Plan\, and many contents in the plan will provide the world's investors with a \list of opportunities\ in China. Through trade, investment, and cooperation, and other business dealings, it not only utilizes China's large factory to strive to meet the needs of global customers but also uses China's large market to actively provide orders and employment opportunities for global manufacturers. The new five-year plan can not only inject certainty into China's development but also inject stability into the development of the world.

China is stabilizing employment and the economy, what is the United States doing?

In today's China, governments at all levels are making strenuous efforts to help micro entities through \one industry, one policy; one enterprise, one policy\ such \arduous work\, allowing them to overcome difficulties and develop better. In contrast, the United States is aggressive when provoking disputes, but often turns a blind eye to domestic calls, as if it doesn't need to consider the negative effects of \tariff wars\ on domestic businesses and residents.

We see their newspapers and television calling for action, the tags on the shelves are changing, the shop owners interviewed are full of worry, the livelihoods of dockworkers and truck drivers are being severely affected, and the U.S. government has not yet introduced a systematic policy plan for people's livelihoods, even focusing its main efforts on partisan struggles and manipulating the capital market.

When they casually say \before you could buy 30 toys, now you can only buy two,\ have they ever considered that if they don't take children's toys seriously today, they might not take more significant livelihood issues seriously tomorrow.

Even if we go back to the starting point of provoking the \tariff war,\ namely the so-called \re-shoring of manufacturing,\ if a government does not engage in serious long-term planning, lacks human capital support, lacks infrastructure support, lacks coordination in industrial chains and supply chains, and may not even lead in the development of automated production and robotics, then it would truly be a \ghost story\ if this could recreate the manufacturing industry.

What the United States truly needs at this time is to cherish China's goodwill.

Over 90 years ago, during the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt once said: \Economic nationalism, represented by high tariffs, in foreign economic policy is one of the reasons for the prolonged global economic depression. Only by removing this obstacle can international trade be restored, and our country's economy can benefit from it.\

Today's U.S. government, apparently, has forgotten such lessons, disregarding many rational voices within its own country, and is determined to use tariff weapons to blackmail various countries. Perhaps when they are calculating, they feel they can endure some shortages in the supply of consumer goods or price increases. However, when observing industrial issues, if one only looks at the end products and ignores all aspects of the industry chain, they will inevitably reach a biased conclusion, which is transmitted into paranoid behavior.

The recent changes in the U.S. stock market do not indicate that confidence is recovering; on the contrary, it is because international capital sees that China has not given up goodwill and has not closed the door to negotiations. Of course, this goodwill and patience are limited and are not applicable to those who continue to exert pressure without any bottom line, blackmail, and renege on their promises. What they truly need now is to cherish China's goodwill, show their own sincerity, and sit down with a sincere attitude to have a good talk, rather than pinning their hopes on the impossible \China's economic collapse theory.\

(Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of the Institute of China's Development Planning at Tsinghua University)