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People's Daily Ren Ping: Looking at the Prospects of China's Economy from the Perspective of Automobile Production and Sales, Foreign Trade Volume
3 days ago
Source:ThepaperCn

The current global economic recovery is hindered, how is the outlook for China's economy? Various parties provide analysis from different perspectives, and two sets of recent data have attracted attention.

One is the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on May 12th, which shows that in the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 10 million vehicles for the first time in history, with year-on-year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 642,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 52.6%. The impressive performance of the automobile industry, which is strategic and pillar, reflects the deep logic of high-quality economic development in China.

Some foreign media analysis suggests that Chinese car companies are not only thriving domestically but also winning the global market. In April alone, BYD's export volume of complete vehicles reached nearly 80,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 90%, reflecting the significant influence of Chinese car companies in overseas markets.

Secondly, data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9th shows that in the first four months of this year, the total value of our country's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Among them, the goods trade imports and exports in April increased by 5.6% year-on-year, and exports increased by 9.3% year-on-year. Foreign trade is going against the wind, and an important aspect is the strong support of Chinese manufacturing and Chinese creation.

In response, Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao and Deutsche Presse-Agentur, among other foreign media, have described it as \beyond expectations.\ Reuters reported that, despite the uncertainty brought by U.S. tariff policies, China's exports in April still maintained a growth rate close to double digits, indicating that the recent cluster of policy measures has played a positive role.

Through two sets of data, people not only feel the resilience of China's economy, but also see the broad prospects of China's economy.

(1)

Counter-cyclical adjustments according to the time and situation, policy effectiveness stimulates the potential of the super-large-scale market.

Chinese automobiles produced and sold over 30 million units last year, with exports exceeding 5 million units, indicating that the industry growth is mainly driven by domestic demand.

The Ministry of Commerce released data on May 12 showing that since the implementation of the car trade-in policy in 2024, the cumulative number of subsidy applications has exceeded 10 million. Foreign media said that China's car trade-in policy effectively offsets the impact of U.S. tariffs on consumer confidence.

As of May 11, the number of applications for the 2025 car trade-in subsidy reached 3.225 million, of which 1.035 million were for car scrapping updates, and 2.19 million were for replacement updates. Among the cars replaced, new energy vehicles accounted for more than 53%. This fully demonstrates that the car trade-in policy effectively promotes consumption growth and green transformation.

In March this year, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the \Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption,\ proposing to support local efforts to expand the scope of consumer goods exchange for old ones, promoting the green and intelligent upgrading of large durable consumer goods such as automobiles, home appliances, and home decoration; carry out pilot reforms for automobile circulation consumption, and expand the consumption of the automotive aftermarket including car modifications, leasing, racing, and RV camping.

Consumer goods trade-in for new ones not only benefits tens of millions of households but also strongly stimulates the growth of bulk durable consumer goods sales, which is a vivid illustration of the effectiveness of the \two new\ policies. In the first quarter, the \two new\ policies have driven an increase of 19% in national equipment, tools, and instruments investment year-on-year, and have driven an increase of 4.6% in the total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year.

Faced with the situation where the foundation for the continuous recovery and improvement of China's economy still needs to be further consolidated, and the impact of external shocks is increasing, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee pointed out on April 25th to \coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles\, and deployed a package of policy measures, while also fully preparing contingency plans.

Focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, expand and improve the implementation of \two new\ policies, and intensify the implementation of \two heavy\ constructions... A batch of policies with strong leverage and tangible benefits is being rolled out. The market calls, and the policy responds; the market is confident, and social expectations are stable.

Practice has taught us that being good at focusing on and making concentrated efforts to tackle prominent contradictions with broad impact and strong externalities can achieve the effect of leading by example and lifting the net by its frame.

Scientific macro-control and effective government governance are the sources of our confidence in dealing with various risks and challenges. The combined force of the \visible hand\ and the \invisible hand\ is opening up the imagination for the governance efficiency of China's economy to achieve high-quality development.

Play the strategic guiding role of national development plans, improve the policy coordination mechanism, enhance the foresight, targeting, and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation, and promote dynamic balance among multiple objectives. We are fully capable of responding to the uncertainty of rapid changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development.

(II)

Promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and the new quality of productivity leverages economic vitality.

Today's Chinese automotive industry is like an explosion of technological innovation.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) has released a new battery with a cycle life of over 10,000 times, capable of maintaining 90% energy retention at temperatures as low as minus 40 degrees Celsius; stepping into the welding workshop of GAC Motor's Yichang factory, over 500 robots work in coordination, with a new car rolling off the line every 52 seconds at the fastest pace...

High-end, intelligent, and green transformation is everywhere, and the higher level dynamic balance of demand driving supply and supply creating demand is being realized from concept to reality.

Break through bottlenecks, overcome difficulties, and create highlights in consumption. The brand new smart cockpit developed by Wuling Motors understands 8 dialects and 12 accents with a recognition rate of 95%; Huawei has released the world's first all-liquid-cooled megawatt-level supercharger, reducing the charging time from 1 to 2 hours to just 15 minutes... Capturing the diversified, personalized, and quality-oriented needs of the new generation of consumers, and opening up demand space with supply upgrades, new energy vehicles have leaped from being \neglected\ to becoming today's \market favorites\.

Adapt measures to local conditions, collaborate in innovation, and forge industrial strengths. Based on industrial resources, Anhui has accelerated the implementation of \vehicle-chip collaboration\ technology research projects, strengthened joint research and development by government, industry, academia, research, and application, and established an open-type ecological laboratory. In the first quarter of this year, the production of automobiles and new energy vehicles both ranked first in the country. \Place the development of new quality productive forces in line with local conditions in a more prominent strategic position,\ with technological innovation as the guide and the real economy as the foundation, accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, and consolidate the foundation of a manufacturing powerhouse.

Aim at the forefront, open cooperation, and maintain a competitive edge. The Shanghai Auto Show that just concluded featured over a hundred global debut models, with 70% of the displayed vehicles being new energy models, and a plethora of \black technologies\. The German \Die Welt\ newspaper remarked that visiting the Shanghai Auto Show always leaves a deep impression, \China lives in the future.\ From \technology introduction\ to \technology feedback,\ from \attracting investment\ to \outward investment,\ from \adapting to standards\ to \setting standards,\ by firmly grasping core technology in their own hands, what is won is a new competitive advantage, and what is opened is a new situation for cooperation.

In the first four months, China's exports of high-tech products increased by 7.4% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 20% of the total exports, contributing 1.3 percentage points to the overall export growth;

In the first quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size in our country grew by 9.7% year-on-year, with the output of servers and 3D printing equipment increasing by 66.3% and 44.9% year-on-year, respectively...

The innovative engine is powerful, and China's economy is full of \new force\; the vigorous growth of the \innovation rainforest\ is precisely the confidence of China's economy in traversing cycles and resisting risks.

Seamlessly connect the innovation chain with the industrial chain, and strengthen the economy with high-level scientific and technological independence, the potential of China's economy is limitless.

(III)

Leading the global low-carbon trend, comprehensive green transformation adds development momentum.

Green and low-carbon is the fundamental solution to ecological and environmental problems, and it is also the direction of international trends. In the first four months, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 4 million units, with a growth rate of over 45%, which conforms to the era's trend of industrial transformation and green low-carbon development.

Green production and lifestyle \move towards each other\.

Use green energy as much as possible within the factory, upgrade equipment to achieve low-carbon manufacturing, and continuously reduce waste emissions; based on industrial digitalization, build a full-system carbon reduction \chain\ path, making energy saving and carbon reduction traceable... Today's Chinese new energy vehicle companies are committed to reducing emissions through a variety of measures such as energy regeneration, product energy saving, material recycling, and technological innovation, making the green foundation of the industry brighter and brighter.

Streets and alleys are filled with new energy vehicles with green license plates shuttling back and forth, and more young consumers choose new energy vehicles as their \first car in life\; the interaction between vehicles and the internet is becoming increasingly mature, turning new energy vehicles into \mobile power banks\, which can not only charge from the power grid but also send electricity back to the grid... New energy vehicles are widely popular and integrated into various scenarios, becoming an important carrier of green and low-carbon living.

Persist in optimizing the industrial structure and consumption structure \in sync\, with the supply side and demand side working together, continuously forming more \green intersection points\, which will effectively unleash new vitality in consumption.

China's manufacturing and overseas demand are \running towards each other\.

Data shows that the top countries for Chinese car exports in the first quarter of this year are Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Australia, among others. A well-known Brazilian car blogger stated that Chinese new energy vehicles \have become a new option for Brazilians when purchasing cars.\ Ricardo Bastos, the president of the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association, said: \We need to replace fossil fuels with clean energy; this is a global industry transformation.\

Seize the opportunities of intelligent and green development, adhere to \global + local\, \Made in China\ not only meets the needs of a better life for global consumers, but also drives and leads the global transformation of transportation energy.

China's \green production capacity\ is enriching global supply and helping to save energy and reduce carbon emissions.

For every 3 units of electricity consumed in China, 1 unit is green electricity; China's wind power and photovoltaic products are exported to more than 200 countries and regions, helping many countries to use clean energy; over the past decade, China has driven the average cost per kilowatt-hour of global wind and photovoltaic power generation projects to decline by more than 60% and 80% respectively... As a provider of \green power\ to the world, China is a well-deserved promoter and contributor.

The more \green content\ there is in development, the more \gold content\ there is in growth. This year, the construction of zero-carbon factories has accelerated, efforts have been made to cultivate new growth points such as green buildings, and \sand and Gobi\ new energy bases are being laid out... We are accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, and if we seize the opportunity, we will surely be able to \turn green into gold\.

Unswervingly do our own things well, and unswervingly expand high-level opening up to the outside world.

\In China, one sees the future, one sees confidence.\ This is the world's impression of China today, and it is also an accurate portrayal of China tomorrow.