It is reported that on June 30th, the White House of the United States issued a statement saying that President Trump signed an executive order on that day to lift sanctions on Syria. According to the executive order, the United States will relax controls on the export of certain goods to Syria and remove restrictions on Syria's acceptance of certain foreign aid. The U.S. Department of the Treasury had previously issued licenses involving the Syrian authorities, the Central Bank of Syria, and state-owned enterprises, and the U.S. Department of State also issued a 180-day sanction exemption.

Additionally, Trump's executive order also emphasized two \assessments\ to be conducted on Syria. First, to assess whether Syria should be removed from the list of \state sponsors of terrorism\ and to promote the lifting of UN sanctions on Syria. Second, to reassess whether to continue designating the Syrian regime leader Ahmed Al-Shara and his led \Syrian Sham Liberation Front\ as \international terrorists\ and a terrorist organization.

Trump stated in the executive order: \The United States is committed to supporting a stable, unified Syria that lives in peace with its neighbors. A unified Syria that no longer harbors terrorist organizations and ensures the security of its religious and ethnic minorities will contribute to regional security and prosperity.\

It can be seen that,Trump's executive order includes a \lifting\ and two \assessments.\ The lifting of sanctions aims to integrate Syria into the U.S.-led regional and international systems by providing limited \relief\ to Syria, thereby achieving American dominance over Syria; the two \assessments\ indicate that the issue of terrorism remains a significant barrier for the U.S. to fully \relieve\ Syria and also a means by which the U.S. can continue to exert pressure on Syria.

So, what are the reasons for the United States to lift sanctions on Syria? And what impacts will it have?

The United States needs a new policy towards Syria.

It is well known that from the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011 to the collapse of the Bashar regime in 2024,The United States' policy towards Syria has been adjusted at different times. Overall, it initially worked with regional countries such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia to overthrow the Assad regime (2011-2015), but later acknowledged the fact that it was difficult to overthrow the Assad regime, and maintained its presence in Syria by supporting the Kurds (2015-2024).The fundamental reason lies in the overall framework of the United States' strategic contraction in the Middle East, and the complex game played by major powers both within and outside the region in Syria, which has led to a reduction in investment in Syria, essentially.By dynamically responding to maintain a certain presence in Syria without seeking dominance in Syria, especially not wanting to get entangled in a war in Syria. However, the policy of opposing, sanctioning, and even overthrowing the Assad regime when opportunities arise has never changed.

The collapse of the Bashar regime in 2024 is primarily the result of the evolution of the situation within Syria itself, with the root cause being the Bashar regime's poor performance in achieving domestic political reconciliation, eliminating opposition forces, achieving national unity, and national development and reconstruction; but it is also closely related to the constraints or weakening of external support forces such as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The sudden collapse of the Bashar regime coincided with the escalation and spillover of a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the United States was also in the midst of a transition from the Biden to the Trump administration. Objectively speaking,The United States does not have a systematic new policy towards Syria, and with the decline of Russia and Iran's influence on Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel exert influence on Syria in various ways. The United States needs to formulate a new policy towards Syria and influence the restructuring of the Middle East region through its Syria policy.

Currently, Turkey has a significant influence on the transitional government in Syria due to its long-term support for the opposition group \Al-Sham Liberation Front,\ which seeks to seize power; the transitional government in Syria represents more of the Sunni Muslim sect and actively moves closer to Saudi Arabia, with Saudi Arabia's influence in Syria also continuously increasing; Israel, taking advantage of the collapse of the Bashar regime and Syria's weakness, has been bombing Syria extensively, greatly diminishing Syria's ability to threaten Israel, eliminating the presence of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, and strengthening control over the Golan Heights and even expanding further. Moreover, after a large-scale conflict between Israel and Iran and the joint bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities by the US and Israel, Syria's strategic importance in the confrontation between the US and Israel with Iran has become even more evident.

Therefore, the United States needs to change the situation of inaction in Syria since 2015, and must act while the overall situation in Syria is still uncertain.Lead the development direction of Syria, and make Syria serve the shaping of the Middle East region after the Israel-Iran conflict by the United States.

Seeking dominance in the Syrian issue will trigger complex games.

Establish the United States' role in Syrian affairs.right to speak,Even seeking to address the issue in Syria.Dominance is an important goal for the United States.But it will also face severe challenges due to the complex game of forces both within and outside the domain.

Affected by the strategic contraction of the United States in the Middle East, as well as the complex game behind the Syrian issue, the United States has not led Syrian affairs for a long time, and even acquiesced to the influence of Russia, Turkey, and even Iran in Syria. However, when the Bashar regime falls, the influence of Russia and Iran in Syria is severely weakened, and the influence of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel in Syria is enhanced, the United States can increase its influence in Syria, and with the support of its allies, especially Saudi Arabia and Israel, establish its dominant position in Syria. Therefore,By lifting sanctions on Syria, making Syria obedient to the United States, and integrating the relationship between the United States and regional allies such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel through the Syrian issue, it becomes the goal of the United States in the situation where both Syria and the Middle East have undergone drastic changes.

However, on the issue of Syria, the USThe game between domestic and foreign forces is a challenge that the United States must face. The United States and Saudi Arabia have significant common interests on the issue of Syria.Even the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria was influenced by Saudi Arabia, and it was during his visit to Saudi Arabia that Trump verbally announced the decision to lift sanctions on Syria.

ButThe United States and Turkey have both common interests and clear disagreements on the issue of Syria.美土过去在颠覆巴沙尔政权方面具有共同利益，目前在支持沙拉政权方面有一定的共同利益，But双方在库尔德问题上存在明显分歧，Turkey resolutely combats the Kurdish forces in Syria, while Trump supports and utilizes the Kurdish forces.

The interests of the United States and Israel in Syria may not be entirely aligned.The United States does not wish for Israel to take advantage of Syria's weakness to expand arbitrarily in Syria and to undermine the 1974 signed Syrian-Israeli \Disengagement Agreement\.And severely weakened in SyriaRussia, Iran, and other powers will not be willing to completely lose their influence in Syria.

Therefore, the increased American interference in the Syrian issue will inevitably trigger and intensify a new round of competition among regional and external forces surrounding Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.

Transforming Syria is by no means an easy task.

From the \lifting\ of one of Trump's executive orders, its purpose is to pass throughCreate conditions for the reconstruction of Syria, thereby taking the initiative in transforming Syria.

Syria holds deep expectations for economic recovery through the lifting of sanctions. The head of the foreign affairs department of the Syrian transitional government, Assad Hassan Shibani, said on June 30th that the U.S. executive order marks a \historic turning point\ in Syria's post-war recovery. Professor Ibrahim Daraji from Damascus University also stated that lifting sanctions is very important for Syria to improve the investment environment and promote economic and social development. Neil Quilliam, a research fellow at the Middle East and North Africa program of the British Chatham House, also pointed out that the cancellation of U.S. sanctions will unfreeze Syria's international assets, allowing foreign companies to re-enter key sectors such as construction, energy, and trade, and restore Damascus's access to the global financial system and credit.

But是，由于掌握叙利亚过渡政权的“沙姆解放阵线”的极端主义、恐怖主义底色，特朗普的行政令同时强调了两个“评估”，其关键在是否把叙利亚从“支持恐怖主义的国家”名单中移除，是否把“叙利亚沙姆解放阵线”从恐怖组织名单中移除。For the transitional regime in Syria, it undoubtedly faces the arduous task of whitewashing its extremist and terrorist organizations' background through deradicalization.But就其目前的国内政策而言，如其对伊斯兰教什叶派阿拉维派遭暴力杀戮听之任之，其政权内任用一些恐怖分子的做法，都表明其去极端化的任务显然远未完成。

The United States has long imposed sanctions on Syria due to issues related to terrorism and \democracy\ and \human rights.\In 1979, the U.S. government designated Syria as a \state sponsor of terrorism,\ imposing an arms embargo and economic sanctions on it. Following the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011, the U.S. government continually intensified sanctions against Syria. In 2019, during his first term, Trump signed the so-called \Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act,\ imposing financial and other sanctions on Syrian government officials as well as individuals and businesses that provide funding to the Syrian government. In the counterterrorism struggle against \ISIS,\ Ahmed al-Jarba (then commonly referred to as Julani) and the \Al-Nusra Front\ he led were also designated as terrorists and an international terrorist organization by the United States.

Trump's executive order specifically emphasizes Syria.\No longer providing shelter for terrorist organizations, and ensuring the safety of its religious and ethnic minorities,\It is evident that the United States is not confident in the current regime in Syria.

In summary, the two \assessments\ are both a reservation of U.S. policy towards Syria and a task for the U.S. to demand that the current Syrian regime continue to reform itself. Therefore,掌握叙利亚现政权的“沙姆解放阵线”仍面临身份转型难题，它必须转向温和化，走实用主义道路，以融入国际社会，But它在意识形态和组织方面彻底与极端主义切割，清除自身的恐怖主义底色，绝不是一朝一夕可以很容易实现的事情。

The \Abraham Accords\ are taking an alternative path with slim hopes.

In the Gulf Arab countries, especially under the circumstances where the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is hindered,Trump is considering taking an alternative path in Syria.这种考虑尽管不能说完全没有可能，But也More is a wishful thinking with little hope.

On June 29th, the day before the White House issued an executive order to lift sanctions on Syria, Trump once again brought up the Abraham Accords, which is dedicated to normalizing relations between Arab countries and Israel, and suggested that other countries join the Abraham Accords. Israel's Foreign Minister Saar stated at a press conference on June 30th: \Israel intends to expand the framework of peace and normalization of relations under the Abraham Accords. We intend to include neighboring countries such as Syria and Lebanon within the framework of peace and normalization of relations, while safeguarding Israel's fundamental and security interests.\ American public opinion also pointed out,Trump hopes to revive the \Abraham Accords\ launched during his first term, and increase efforts to improve relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

In the situation where the current regime in Syria needs the United States,Syria improving relations with Israel under US pressure, and even normalizing relations, is not entirely impossible.有报道称，叙利亚和以色列之间正在进行间接谈判。But双方显然存在明显分歧。叙利亚要求以色列停止袭击并恢复履行1974年签署的《部队脱离接触协议》，以色列则寻求建立缓冲区。因此，Syria and Israel currently have significant differences on security issues, and the Golan Heights, a territory occupied by Israel, is the fundamental contradiction that is difficult for both sides to compromise on.The transitional regime in Syria must necessarily pay attention to the territorial issue that concerns its national and ethnic dignity, which is directly related to its political legitimacy within the country. From the perspective of the Palestinian issue and the overall stance of the Arab world, the mentality of Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia must also be very contradictory on the issue of normalizing relations between Syria and Israel, and this will also constrain Syria's choices.

History shows that Syria has always been the intersection of imperial contradictions and the focal point of great power contradictions, and has long been the focus of the game between internal and external forces.For Trump, who has no intention of increasing resource investment in the Middle East and lacks a systematic strategy, it is difficult to gain control over Syria by lifting sanctions on Syria, and even more challenging to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East by transforming and shaping Syria.

\Middle East Insight\ is a column by Professor Liu Zhongmin from the Middle East Institute at Shanghai International Studies University, which insists on combining reality, theory, and foundation to respond to current issues with historical and theoretical depth.