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Bull Market Morning Report | Joint Statement on China-US Economic and Trade Talks in Geneva Released
4 days ago
Source:ThepaperCn

【Market Data】

On May 12th, at the close, the SSE Composite Index rose by 0.82%, reporting 3369.24 points; the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.49%, reporting 1011.23 points; the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72%, reporting 10301.16 points; the ChiNext Index increased by 2.63%, reporting 2064.71 points. The total transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1308.4 billion yuan.

U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks, the three major stock indexes closed sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.81%, at 42,410.1 points; the S&P 500 Index up 3.26%, at 5,844.19 points; the Nasdaq Composite up 4.35%, at 18,708.34 points.

International oil prices rose on the 12th. As of the close of the trading day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in June at the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by 93 cents, closing at $61.95 per barrel, up 1.52%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery in July in London increased by $1.05, closing at $64.96 per barrel, up 1.64%.

**Financial Highlights**

1. According to Xinhua News Agency, the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade talks in Geneva. Both parties commit to take the following actions before May 14, 2025: The United States will (i) amend the ad valorem tariffs imposed on Chinese goods (including goods from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) as stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 dated April 2, 2025, among which, a 24% tariff will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while retaining the additional 10% tariff on these goods as per the provisions of the executive order; (ii) cancel the additional tariffs on these goods according to Executive Order No. 14259 dated April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 dated April 9, 2025. China will (i) correspondingly amend the ad valorem tariffs imposed on US goods as stipulated in the Tax Committee Announcement No. 4 of 2025, among which, a 24% tariff will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while retaining the additional 10% tariff on these goods, and cancel the additional tariffs on these goods according to Tax Committee Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025; (ii) take necessary measures to suspend or cancel the non-tariff countermeasures against the United States since April 2, 2025. After taking the above actions, both parties will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations. The Chinese representative is Vice Premier of the State Council He Lifeng, and the US representatives are Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamison Grell. Consultations can be held in China, the United States, or a third country agreed upon by both parties. As needed, both parties may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.

2. According to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce made a statement on the joint declaration of the China-US economic and trade talks in Geneva. Since April 2025, on the basis of the previous unilateral increase in tariffs, the US government has imposed so-called \reciprocal tariffs\ on China, and China has taken resolute and justified countermeasures. Subsequently, the US has escalated tariff measures in turn, raising the \reciprocal tariff\ rate from the first round of 34% to 84% and 125%. The high tariffs imposed by the US have seriously damaged normal bilateral economic and trade exchanges and severely disrupted the international economic and trade order. The joint declaration reached in this meeting is an important step taken by both parties to resolve differences through equal dialogue and consultation, laying the foundation and creating conditions for further narrowing differences and deepening cooperation.

3. According to Xinhua News Agency, Xinhua published a commentary titled \China-U.S. Economic and Trade Talks Help to Alleviate Global Economic Pressure and Increase Confidence,\ stating that the holding of this meeting is a positive development in China-U.S. economic and trade relations, laying the foundation for subsequent communication and negotiations. However, the saying goes that \Rome wasn't built in a day,\ and the structural contradictions and deep-seated differences between China and the U.S. still exist, and it is impossible to resolve these issues overnight. For this meeting and the direction of China-U.S. economic and trade relations in the coming period, rational expectations should be maintained. Being able to sit down and talk is a necessary gesture to avoid escalating conflicts. But expecting to completely eliminate all differences through one or two meetings is obviously unrealistic. We are pleased to see the resumption of dialogue and are fully prepared for the long-term, complexity, and arduous nature of China and the U.S. in resolving differences. Both sides need to maintain the current momentum of dialogue, manage differences, accumulate consensus, and strengthen trust through equal consultation.

4. According to the Ministry of Commerce, on May 12th, the Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, presided over a roundtable meeting with foreign trade companies. Representatives from 12 foreign trade companies, 6 import and export chambers of commerce, and relevant experts from the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research attended the meeting to discuss current foreign trade situations, support for the development of foreign trade enterprises, and other topics. Deputy Representative of International Trade Negotiations at the Ministry of Commerce, Li Yonghu, attended the meeting. Wang Wentao stated that recently, the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States have reached important consensus and achieved substantial progress, laying the foundation and creating conditions for further narrowing differences and deepening cooperation. Next, the Ministry of Commerce will earnestly implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee, coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, based on the \three important\ positioning of commercial work, and together with relevant departments, will make every effort to alleviate difficulties for foreign trade enterprises, provide more support, help foreign trade enterprises explore markets, and promote the stable development of foreign trade.

5. According to People's Daily, on May 12th, the Office of the National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism organized the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of State Security, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Transport, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, General Administration of Customs, State Administration for Market Regulation, State Post Bureau, and local authorities in provinces rich in strategic mineral resources such as Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan to hold a meeting in Changsha, Hunan Province, to strengthen the deployment of export control of the entire chain of strategic minerals. Control of strategic mineral exports, strengthening the control of the entire export chain is key. All departments must work closely together, according to their responsibilities, to seriously fulfill the regulatory responsibilities of strategic mineral mining, smelting, processing, transportation, manufacturing, sales, and export at each stage, and effectively strengthen the control of the entire chain; local people's governments must strengthen their local regulatory responsibilities, conduct a systematic investigation of enterprises at all stages of the export of strategic minerals in their regions and establish accounts, guide local enterprises to strengthen the construction of compliance systems, improve the awareness and ability of enterprises to comply, and work together to ensure that control measures are implemented in place.

6. According to Xinhua News Agency, the State Council Information Office released the white paper \China's National Security in the New Era\ on May 12. The white paper, with a total of about 22,000 words, is divided into six parts, excluding the preface and conclusion. These parts are: China injects certainty and stability into a world entangled in chaos; the overall national security concept guides the direction of national security in the new era; providing a solid support for the steady and far-reaching progress of Chinese-style modernization; strengthening security in development and seeking development in security; practicing the global security initiative and promoting international common security; and advancing the modernization of the national security system and capabilities in deepening reforms.

7. According to CCTV News, data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that as of May 11th, the number of applications for the 2025 car trade-in subsidy has reached 3.225 million, including 1.035 million for car scrapping and updating, and 2.19 million for replacement updating. Since the implementation of the car trade-in policy in 2024, the cumulative number of subsidy applications has exceeded 10 million. The car trade-in policy has effectively promoted the continuous recovery of car consumption. From January to April, the domestic passenger car retail volume was 6.872 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. According to the monitoring of key retail enterprises by business big data, the sales volume of the automotive category in April increased by 1.9% year-on-year.

8. According to the website of the People's Bank of China, recently, the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory General Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and the People's Government of Guangdong Province jointly issued the \Opinions on Financial Support for Guangzhou Nansha to Deepen Comprehensive Cooperation with Hong Kong and Macao Facing the World.\ The \Opinions\ propose 30 key measures from aspects such as improving financial services for innovation and entrepreneurship, strengthening financial services in the social and livelihood fields, developing characteristic financial services, promoting the interconnection of financial markets between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao, carrying out cross-border financial innovation and exchanges, and improving the financial regulatory mechanism. This aims to better leverage the leading and driving role of Guangzhou Nansha in the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a \new strategic fulcrum for development, a demonstration area for high-quality development, and a guiding area for Chinese-style modernization.\ Next, the People's Bank of China and the People's Government of Guangdong Province will work with relevant departments to implement the various measures of the \Opinions,\ further strengthen the financial support for the high-quality development of Guangzhou Nansha and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, promote the construction of the Greater Bay Area to a new level, and help achieve high-level financial openness and high-quality economic development.

9. According to CCTV International News, Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft Corporation in the United States, recently stated in an interview with CNN that he believes the United States' technological blockade against China has had the exact opposite effect. It has not only failed to restrict China's technological development but has also allowed China to achieve full-speed development in areas such as chip manufacturing. Gates said that it is difficult to limit China's development, and the idea of keeping technology entirely to oneself is unrealistic. Gates also indicated that the United States' tariff policies have created a great deal of uncertainty, which will have a significant impact on various industries, and this uncertainty will prevent companies from carrying out normal investment activities.

10. According to Securities Daily, on Monday Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order related to reducing the price of prescription drugs in the United States. After the details of the executive order were announced, the stock prices of large U.S. pharmaceutical companies soared, with the decline quickly narrowing and turning into a gain. By the close, the stock prices of Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk rose by 2.86%, 3.64%, and 2.98%, respectively. Some analysts believe that the wording of this executive order is vague, with almost no specific implementation details, hence the positive stock price reaction of the pharmaceutical companies, which is interpreted as \not as worrying as expected.\ Similar to many of Trump's administrative actions, his pharmaceutical pricing policy seems to have ignored the laws of the market itself.