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Bull Market Morning Report | China-US Economic and Trade High-Level Talks Reach Important Consensus, Achieve Substantial Progress
1 day ago
Source:ThepaperCn

[Market Data]

As of the close on May 9th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.3%, reporting 3,342 points; the STAR 50 Index fell by 1.96%, reporting 1,006.32 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.69%, reporting 10,126.83 points; the ChiNext Index fell by 0.87%, reporting 2,011.77 points. The total transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1,192 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day's 1,293.4 billion yuan. Among them, the Shanghai market transaction was 464.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day's 501.6 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen market transaction was 727.1 billion yuan.

On May 9th, Eastern Time, most of the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.29%, the S&P 500 down 0.07%, and the Nasdaq unchanged. Amgen and Merck fell more than 2%, leading the Dow Jones decline. The Wind U.S. Technology Titans Index rose 0.16%, Tesla surged 4.72%, and Apple rose 0.53%. Chinese concept stocks fluctuated, with Li Auto down 2.2%. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16% in total, the S&P 500 fell 0.47% in total, and the Nasdaq fell 0.27% in total.

【Financial Highlights】

1. According to Xinhua News Agency, on May 9th, Premier Li Qiang presided over the State Council executive meeting. The meeting discussed measures to deepen the reform and innovation of national-level economic and technological development zones. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to deeply promote the reform and innovation of national-level economic and technological development zones, and to use high-level opening up to promote deep-level reform and high-quality development. It is essential to deepen the reform of management systems, vigorously promote \efficiently accomplishing one thing,\ and address the prominent bottlenecks and issues reported by enterprises. It is also necessary to strengthen the protection of land, talent, and capital, formulate supporting policies and supporting measures, and create a better environment for the development of national-level economic and technological development zones.

The meeting reviewed and approved the \Regulations on the Sharing of Government Data (Draft)\. The meeting pointed out that, on the basis of ensuring data security, it is necessary to break down data barriers and promote more inclusive and convenient public services. It is essential to build a national integrated government big data system, promote the integrated application of data resources, better empower social governance and prosper industrial ecosystems, and enhance new drivers of economic development.

2. On May 12th, according to CCTV News, the China-U.S. economic and trade high-level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The Chinese lead person for China-U.S. economic and trade, Vice Premier He Lifeng, stated at a press conference held by the Chinese delegation on the evening of the 11th local time that the China-U.S. economic and trade high-level talks were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. Both sides agreed to establish a China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism. The two parties will finalize the relevant details as soon as possible and will release a joint statement reached in the talks on May 12th.

3. According to the central bank's website, on May 9th, the central bank issued the \2025 First Quarter China Monetary Policy Implementation Report\. In it, the column article \Comparing the Debt Situation of the Governments of China, the United States, and Japan from the Perspective of Government Balance Sheets\ mentioned that the sustainability of government debt is not only related to the scale of debt but is also closely related to the structure of government assets and liabilities, and the profitability of assets. The comparison among the three countries indicates that, considering the vast state-owned assets and the relatively low level of government debt, the expansion of Chinese government debt still has sustainability, which is of great significance for strengthening livelihood protection, improving income distribution, promoting economic transformation, and achieving dynamic balance. It also mentioned that accelerating the establishment and improvement of the pension financial system, supporting the Chinese-style pension cause, supporting the stimulation and expansion of consumption, guiding financial institutions to actively meet the diversified funding needs of various entities from both the supply and demand sides of consumption, expanding the scope of use of guaranteed housing re-lending, continuously consolidating the stable trend of the real estate market, improving the basic financial system of real estate, and helping to build a new model for real estate development.

4, On May 10th, according to the National Bureau of Statistics website, in April 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. Among them, urban areas remained unchanged, rural areas decreased by 0.3%; food prices decreased by 0.2%, non-food prices remained unchanged; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.3%, and service prices increased by 0.3%. From January to April on average, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year.

5. On May 9th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released the preliminary balance of payments for the first quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, China's current account surplus was 1,188.5 billion yuan, of which, the goods trade surplus was 1,705.3 billion yuan, the service trade deficit was 425.8 billion yuan, the primary income deficit was 110.4 billion yuan, and the secondary income surplus was 19.4 billion yuan. The capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions for the quarter) deficit was 1,188.5 billion yuan, with direct investment in China maintaining net inflows. In terms of US dollars, in the first quarter of 2025, China's current account surplus was 165.6 billion USD, of which, the goods trade surplus was 237.6 billion USD, the service trade deficit was 59.3 billion USD, the primary income deficit was 15.4 billion USD, and the secondary income surplus was 2.7 billion USD. The capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions for the quarter) deficit was 165.6 billion USD.

6. On May 9th, according to the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the CSRC, in combination with regulatory work practices and the focus of all market participants, has recently formulated the 2025 annual legislative work plan, making overall arrangements for the legislative work of the entire year. The CSRC will actively promote the introduction of various regulatory documents in accordance with the legislative work plan. There are a total of 19 regulatory projects included in the CSRC's 2025 annual legislative work plan, including 8 \key projects that strive to be introduced within the year\ and 11 \projects that need to be studied urgently and introduced at the right time.\ The focus of the legislation is to strengthen the supervision of key areas in the capital market, maintain the stable and healthy development of the market, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of the vast number of small and medium investors.

7. On May 9th, according to China Construction Daily, recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development organized a work promotion meeting to support the development of the private economy. The meeting emphasized the need to effectively implement various policy measures to promote the development of the private economy, strengthen research, regularly listen to the opinions and suggestions of private enterprises, industry associations, and think tanks, further improve systems, and innovate mechanisms to create a better policy and legal environment for private enterprises to participate in the reform and development of housing and urban-rural construction.

8. According to the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, on May 9th, Xin Guobin, a member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, presided over a symposium on the operation of the industrial economy in some provinces in Beijing. The meeting emphasized the need to coordinate domestic economic work with international economic and trade struggles, to resolutely manage our own affairs, to promote the stable operation of the industrial economy in the second quarter, and to respond to the drastic changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development. It is necessary to maintain strategic determination, to coordinate and make good use of the \two new\ and \two heavy\ policies, to continue to cultivate and strengthen new quality productive forces, to vigorously promote the quality and upgrading of key industries, and to actively carry out comprehensive rectification of \involutionary\ competition in accordance with the central deployment, to create a favorable environment for the development of enterprises. It is essential to adhere to the thinking of the bottom line, to implement policies to stabilize the economy and employment, to increase support for enterprises greatly affected by tariffs, to actively serve enterprises in \going global\, to strengthen economic operation analysis and judgment, to reinforce policy research and reserve, and to promote the effective improvement of the economy in terms of quality and the reasonable growth in terms of quantity.

9. According to The Paper, on May 11th, data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee (PCA) showed that in April, the national passenger car market retailed 1.755 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and a month-on-month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail for the year so far is 6.872 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. In terms of new energy vehicles, the new energy passenger car market retailed 905,000 vehicles in April, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%, and a month-on-month decrease of 8.7%; from January to April, the cumulative retail is 3.324 million vehicles, a growth of 35.7%. In April, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic overall passenger car market was 51.5%, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The PCA emphasized that the wholesale sales and production of passenger car manufacturers in April both set historical highs for the month. At the same time, the retail sales in April were only slightly lower than the highest level of 1.81 million in April 2018, and are at a historical high for April retail over the years.

10. On May 9th, according to The Paper, Shanghai's private fund managers are entering the countdown for self-assessment and self-correction. Recently, the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau sent a notice titled \Notice on Regulating the Operation of Private Fund Managers in Shanghai\ (hereinafter referred to as the \Notice\) to private fund managers within its jurisdiction. It requires private fund managers in Shanghai to carry out work related to standardized operation, including organizing centralized learning, participating in compliance training, conducting self-assessment and self-correction, and completing the self-assessment and self-correction by June 15, 2025, forming relevant reports, and promptly rectifying identified issues. The \Notice\ has different self-inspection requirements for equity venture capital funds, subjective strategy securities funds, and quantitative strategy securities funds.

11. On the evening of May 11th, the \Huiyuan\ WeChat public account posted an article stating that multiple online comments about Huyuan Juice such as \heading towards the end, being fooled by capital again, tragedy,\ and other negative remarks are all false information. These are malicious exaggerations of the facts, slandering Huyuan Juice, and undermining private enterprises and national brands in a sinister manner. In fact, since the successful restructuring in 2022, Huyuan Juice has been operating normally and continuously improving. Not long ago, it also received certification from a well-known third-party organization proving its market position as the \number one in national sales of 100% juice.\

12. According to The Paper, at 6:52 AM on May 10th, Lei Jun posted on Weibo saying: \Saturday. Gym check-in, the 42nd time in 2025.\ He expressed: The past month has been the most difficult period since I founded Xiaomi, with low spirits, canceling some meeting arrangements and travel plans, and also pausing social media interactions for a while. I have been very busy these past few years, but this period has allowed me to calm down and think carefully, and indeed, I have gained something... Lei Jun also said, \Recently, I have read many friends' messages, which is particularly touching. Everyone's care and support have given me great confidence, allowing me to gradually regain the courage and confidence to move forward, and my condition is starting to recover gradually.\

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